The Freight Market Is Moving Fast. DAT Just Made It Easier to See Where It's Going

If you're an owner-operator or running a small trucking company, knowing what a load pays isn't enough anymore. You need to know what the market around that load is doing.

Diesel prices have already shown us this year how quickly the math can change. In March, DAT reported that a sharp increase in fuel costs pushed truckload rates to their highest levels in more than two years. But there was an important detail behind those higher rates: much of the increase was fuel, not necessarily better linehaul revenue for the carrier.

That's an important distinction.

A load paying $2.60 per mile doesn't automatically mean you're making more money than you were when that same lane paid $2.30. If diesel went up, your operating cost went up with it. And if you have to deadhead 150 miles to pick up the load or deliver into an area where there isn't much outbound freight, that seemingly good rate can become a bad business decision pretty quickly.

This is why I think DAT's newly redesigned Trendlines deserves more attention from owner-operators and small carriers.

DAT Trendlines has changed

DAT recently launched a new version of its free Trendlines tool.

The old Trendlines was primarily a quick way to look at weekly freight numbers and rate charts for dry van, reefer and flatbed. The new version keeps that information but makes it much more interactive.

You can now choose the equipment type you're interested in and look at the market over different timeframes, including week, month and year.

But the biggest improvement, in my opinion, is the map.

DAT added an interactive market map showing demand, capacity and rates across different parts of the country. It also gives the load-to-truck ratio its own dedicated chart.

That changes Trendlines from something you might occasionally read into something that can actually help you understand the environment you're booking freight in.

A national average doesn't tell you where you want to send your truck

This is especially important for smaller carriers.

A large fleet may have hundreds or thousands of trucks, contracted lanes, dedicated freight and direct relationships with shippers. An owner-operator or small carrier that relies heavily on brokered spot freight has a very different problem.

Every load is also a positioning decision.

Where is this load taking me?

How many loads are available around the destination?

How many trucks am I competing against?

Are rates strengthening or weakening?

What has been happening over the last few weeks?

And what are my options after I unload?

That's why looking at the rate on a single load board posting doesn't give you the complete picture.

You could take the highest-paying load available today and still make the wrong decision if it puts your truck into a weak market tomorrow.

The load-to-truck ratio matters

One of the numbers owner-operators should learn to watch is the load-to-truck ratio.

At its simplest, it helps show the relationship between available freight and available trucks. When there are more loads competing for fewer trucks, carriers generally have more negotiating leverage. When there are plenty of trucks chasing limited freight, that leverage shifts toward brokers and shippers.

It isn't a guarantee of what a particular broker will pay you, but it gives you context before you start negotiating.

The new Trendlines makes this information easier to see instead of burying it inside a table. DAT also lets you look geographically at demand, capacity and rates.

For somebody deciding where to send a truck next, that context can be extremely valuable.

Don't confuse a higher freight rate with a better freight market

Fuel makes this even more important.

Spot freight is typically negotiated as an all-in rate. Unlike many contract arrangements, you generally don't see a separate fuel surcharge added to the rate agreement. The cost of fuel is effectively buried inside the price you negotiate.

We saw exactly why that matters earlier this year.

In March, DAT reported an average spot van rate of $2.52 per mile, up 11 cents from February. Reefer increased to $2.97 and flatbed reached $3.09. But DAT said those increases were driven largely by fuel cost recovery. The average van fuel surcharge component increased from 41 cents to 61 cents per mile.

In other words, seeing rates go up on the load board doesn't necessarily mean carrier profitability improved by the same amount.

Your revenue per mile matters.

Your cost per mile matters more.

And when diesel and freight rates are both moving, you need to understand what is happening to both sides of that equation.

The market can change quickly

There is another reason I would pay closer attention to freight-market data right now: we've seen some unusually large movements in rates.

In June, DAT reported that dry van spot rates moved above contract rates for the first time since February 2022. Spot linehaul rates across van, reefer and flatbed were at least 39% higher than the previous year even though freight volumes were flat or lower year over year. DAT attributed much of that movement to tighter truck capacity rather than a major increase in freight demand.

Then August went the other direction.

DAT reported that the national average van spot linehaul rate dropped 20 cents in August, reefer dropped 14 cents and flatbed dropped 20 cents. According to DAT, those were the largest July-to-August declines for all three equipment types in its 16-year rate history.

That's a pretty good example of why relying on what you remember rates being a few weeks ago can be dangerous.

The market you drove through last month isn't necessarily the market you're operating in today.

Make market research part of your morning routine

I'm not suggesting that you stare at freight charts all day.

But if your business depends heavily on spot-market freight, I would make checking Trendlines part of the routine, just like checking fuel prices, weather and your load board.

Before booking your next load, take a few minutes and look at the bigger picture.

Look at your equipment type. Look at the recent rate trend. Look at the load-to-truck ratio. Look at the markets around your destination. Then compare that information with what you're actually seeing on the load board.

Trendlines itself remains a free weekly market snapshot built using DAT's rate data, the same underlying rate data used by RateView. The redesigned version simply gives you more ways to examine that information.

So checking it daily doesn't mean expecting an entirely new national dataset every morning. It means keeping the current market picture in front of you when you're making daily decisions about where your truck goes and what rate you're willing to accept.

One load can affect the next three

This is probably the biggest lesson for owner-operators.

Don't evaluate every load by itself.

A $3.00-per-mile load that takes you into an area where the next load pays $1.70 can be worse than a $2.60 load that positions you in a strong freight market with multiple reload options.

The same goes for deadhead. The same goes for fuel. The same goes for sitting for a day waiting for freight.

The rate on the screen is only one piece of the decision.

For small carriers that depend on the spot market, information is one of the few advantages that doesn't require owning more trucks, having a bigger sales department or signing a national contract with a shipper.

You can see where capacity is tight. You can see where demand is stronger. You can watch rates. You can understand whether the market is moving in your favor or against you.

And then you can decide where you want to send your truck.

The new DAT Trendlines makes that information easier to see. With fuel costs and freight rates capable of changing quickly, I'd bookmark it and make it part of the daily routine.

Because in this market, knowing what a load pays is important.

Knowing what the market is doing around that load is what helps you decide whether you should take it.

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